Business Plans Are An Historical Artifact

This article (Business Plans Are An Historical Artifact)  first appeared last week in the Wall Street Journal The Accelerators Column, which I’m contributing to on a regular basis. 

In 1987 when I started my first company (Feld Technologies), I wrote a business plan for a course at MIT that I was in called 15.375: New Enterprises. The textbook for the course was Jeffry A. Timmons’ classic book “New Venture Creation” and the course ended with the submission of a written business plan.

I went on to create a company, with my partner Dave Jilk, that bore very little resemblance to that business plan. When I reread the plan several years ago for amusement, it motivated me to go dig up plans for other successful companies that I was a co-founder of or early investor in, including NetGenesis and Harmonix. In each case, the business plans were big, long, serious documents that had only a minor semblance to actual business that got created.

In the 1990s, business plan competitions were all the rage. I was a judge early on at the MIT $10k Competition (now the $100k Competition) and read lots and lots of business plans. By 1997, when I started investing as a venture capital investor, I was no longer reading business plans. And I don’t think I have since then.

Today, it’s clear to me that business plans for startup companies are a historical artifact that represented the best approach at the time to define a business for potential investors. In the past decade, we’ve shifted from a “tell me about it” approach (the business plan) to a “show me” approach (the Lean Startup). Rather than write long exhaustive documents, entrepreneurs can rapidly prototype their product and get immediate user and market feedback. They can use Steve Blank’s Lean LaunchPad approach to get out of the building and actually incorporate customer development early into the definition of their business. And they can learn the lesson we teach over and over again in TechStars – “show don’t tell.”

While “business plan competitions” are still around, some are rapidly evolving into “business creation competitions.” CU Boulder is at the forefront of this with their New Venture Challenge, which is experimenting with new things each year. And activities like Startup Weekend are teaching a new generation of entrepreneurs how to envision, create, and launch a startup in a weekend, and then incorporating Blank’s Lean LaunchPad into a month-long process called SWNext.

As an entrepreneur, I encourage you to reject the notion of a classical business plan from the 1970’s. You should still thinking deeply about the business you are creating and communicate clearly what you are doing to investors – just use contemporary approaches that are much more deeply incorporated into the actual creation of your product and business.

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  • Totally agree. I recently mentioned this one of the entrepreneurs I mentor + couched it in the ‘distill your idea, approach, team + model into 8-12 slides /pages’ and go from there.

    It forces clarity – for you, your cofounder(s) and potential investors. Business plan narratives that ramble on and on don’t get read. And they almost never get followed. So don’t waste time on ’em.

    • I’ve also found that writing down thoughts in a narrative form, rather than cribbing using powerpoint, is powerful. However, keeping it short (< 10 pages) is also powerful.

  • Thanks Brad. I wish this point could be conveyed to some of the government institutions that dole out grants but require 100 pages of BPs. I am curious to know which aspects of the business plan should be discarded the most. I find that BPs are still very necessary not for purposes of presentation necessarily but as a good exercise to understand the finer dynamics and assumptions of your business. Additionally, what are your thoughts about BPs for a business in an established industry (say an ice cream shop) where the moving parts are very predictable (location, price, demand etc.).

    • There’s a huge difference between “the business plan” and the “financial model”. In the case of a business in an established industry, a simple and clear financial model is useful and should be straightforward to create. This is different that a speculative financial model based on a series of assumptions that have no basis in reality. Unfortunately, many financial models – even from what you’d expect to be predictable businesses, are wildly optimistic and diverge from reality.

  • I spoke with some entrepreneur students recently. They were working on their business plans. After questioning the specifics, it was clear that they were preparing this 1990’s business plan. My biggest concern is that it was at my alma mater in their entrepreneur program! I get they need a grade, with some sort of rubric, but there must be a better way of judging work, effort, etc. They were all talking about venture backing while preparing for the SBA, SBDC, or bank. I am going back in mid-December to work with the class again, and this post will be coming with me.

    • Excellent. And hand out copies of Eric Ries’ Lean Startup book. It’ll be easy for the students to digest and will change their views completely. Make the professors and adminstrators of the program read it also.

  • Sad news, because I write great business plans…

    In all seriousness, I love the speed at which prototyping and MVPs can get to the true problem — ideally before any code is written.

    Most importantly, I think that lean results in simpler products… and having built and worked on things that got way too complicated, going back to simplify is so tough.

    • Yup – it’s gets you to get the product out much more quickly. And then you can build on the product based on real feedback, rather than your theoretical view of what might be interesting to people.

  • After I started Xero Shoes, I called a friend for advice… a guy who had started and sold 2 shoe companies for hundreds of millions.

    His advice:

    1) If someone offers you money, don’t argue about the terms. Take it.
    2) Prepare for the fact that in 6 months, you’ll be in a different business than the one you’re in today.

    Luckily we got good terms on the money we were offered.

    And a month ago we developed a new product that changed the course of our business by a good 90 degrees (and made 40k worth of marketing materials basically useless).

    We have yet another product that could turn us another 90, or 180.

    All that said, our business plan and financial model are almost comically obsolete.

    • Great example and very true in many many cases.

      • OH! I just remembered another classic b-plan story:

        A friend of the family was a big deal software VC. He asked about my business plan for Scriptware (my software company) when it was very new. I gave it to him and he asked me about the projections. I said, “You know they’re fiction, right?” He said, “We all know they’re fiction… we just want to see that you have the skills to think it through at this moment.”

  • We followed lean startup and MVP when building our product, although we still put too much into 1.0.

    We decided to beta launch after 6 months of building and also to run focus groups by looking for people on Craigslist. Got some invaluable insights, one real gem was that we didn’t have a “Sign Up” button on any other page that was obvious besides the home page.

    After getting good product-market fit and we started getting traction we were a bit lost. Though old school business plans are dead we found our financial model which we needed to put together for investors invaluable.

    We were hitting good growth but we began to worry how long we could sustain it before it started to catch up with us and the financial model allowed us to take a lot of unknown variables and create clear projections. We right away saw for how many months we would be comfortable managing the growth ourselves and all of the apprehension was gone.

    Now we are just looking to see if we are hitting our target each month, if we do then it paints a better picture when we look to raise, if we dont, then we know we can sustain the growth ourselves without much undo stress.

    Long story short, business models may be dead, but it doesn’t mean that you should discount financial models or other factual data when you leave the product-market fit phase and enter your growth phase.

    • Excellent point and example. You grokked the meaning of the article – rather than sit down and write a business plan and then go try to raise money, you actually ran a bunch of experiments, built something, found fit with your customers, but then needed to step back and make sure you had an economic model that made sense. Totally logical and I expect your financial model was dramatically better than 99% of the ones done in a vacuum.

      • Our initial “vacuum” models were completely pointless and didn’t improve our grasp on our current state or future.

        Once we had some traction numbers and we worked with those to develop a much more functional financial model we got real insight. We saw immediately how our prior months performance plugged into the model, and we had real concrete estimates for future months which we’ve seen we are actually able to hit, minus a few unforeseen startup challenges which always arise.

        But now we have a grasp on where we are headed and it’s a complete 180 from being in the dark before.

  • What would you recommend entrepreneurs do when an potential investor asks to see a business plan? I’ve had others tell me this would now be considered a “red flag” and that we wouldn’t want them involved.

    • It depends on your experience as an entrepreneur, the maturity of your business, and your leverage in the financing process.. If you are a first time entrepreneur who is scraping to get a financing done with anyone, you have less choice than if you are an experienced entrepreneur who can fund their seed round quickly with their own money and money from close friends / family / past investors. So – like many things – it depends.

      Remember that I’m not saying “don’t plan” – I’m saying use Lean LaunchPad and Lean Startup approaches instead. This generates plenty of “documentation” that may satisfy, and even increase the interest, of this early potential investor.

  • DJ

    I agree with this 100%, but I’m curious if you seen business plans for ultra complex enterprises like SpaceX and Tesla? It seems to me that a lot of up front market research and R&D would be necessary before you can even build a prototype

    • I have no idea if there was a formal business plan for either of these companies. I’d hypothesize both were created on a simple premise (electronic cars are the future; space travel needs to exist) and an enormous amount of planning went into building the first products. I don’t think a long, extended market study would be needed for either. There’s no question that there was enormous R&D in each case, but this is R&D that is not “pre-business plan R&D” – this is “go build a prototype R&D.”

      • DJ

        I see what you mean, but still I bet selling investors on “electric cars are the future” was not easy. It reminds me of “strong AI is just a few years away.”

        • I didn’t say it was easy!

          • DJ

            I know, I know. My point was just that I bet it was more than a few PowerPoint slides. Likely a lot of market research around what would make people switch to electric and why it was best to target the top end of the market first. It could be that they really did just bet on Elon (who I’m sure had already invested a lot of his own money before he ever raised capital) but I’d be curious to see if they had something closer to a business plan than a PowerPoint when they were out pitching.

  • Yes.

    But it’s still a good exercise for founders–it forces them to think through their plans through prose, clarify their messages. The model is more important. But the plan forces clarity.

    • Except for the traditional business plan isn’t a particular healthy way to think through this. Instead, it’s just a long, formal document that is a lot of tedium, speculative work, rather than an ever evolving document and process like what you get from the Lean LaunchPad and Business Plan Canvas.

      I’m not advocating no planning – I’m advocating real experiments and interactions with prospective customers as part of the planning process.

  • Yes, yes, yes, and yes. Planning for a landscape that changes rapidly is quite unwise. It’s easy to say it from an ivory tower and also easy to poison the minds of young would be’s into believing that B-Plans are the holy grail.

  • I know a team in Spain who’d built a great product, but neglected it for 3 months to write an equally great business plan for backwards investors. Needless to say, they ended up failing.

  • When someone has a prototype and a pitch, what financial thinking helps you understand where they think they are going?

    A plan ain’t the end game. Thinking it through is a really useful exercise.

    • That’s what Lean Launchpad and other similar approaches are for. There’s no absence of understanding what the business is and where it is going in these methodologies. In fact, they have much more analytical basis that a traditional Excel spreadsheet five year plan for a startup which is guaranteed to be one thing – completely wrong.

      • I need to look at these. Thanks!

      • Craig Olofson

        I can understand an editor’s inclination to go all Francis Fukuyama with a title and declare “The End of [fill in topic here].” Editors are like that. They gotta sell the edition! They gotta grab people’s attention!!!

        From where I sit, though, this essay and its title are about two degrees short of a disservice. It’s a bait and switch. It would’ve been more straightforward to use the essay’s conclusion instead.

        “I encourage you to reject the notion of a classical business plan from the 1970′s.”

        I know. It’s not nearly as impressive at first blush and, it sounds as gripping as “Stop driving that AMC Gremlin!” but, it’s a heck of a lot closer the piece’s theme and follow-up comments. For example;

        You don’t read business plans anymore: Looking at the trajectory of your career, that makes perfect sense. Serial entrepreneur, turned serial investor; obviously, you won’t be reading business plans anymore. You will have someone else “validate” them, however.

        That five year plan is guaranteed to be one thing – completely wrong: Of course it’s wrong. Half a pro forma’s utility lies squarely in it being wrong. Consider it a necessary point in triangulation. “We project we’ll be here in [n] months. Let’s calendar that for validation.” Which leads me to…

        Lean, et al, have more analytical basis than traditional [insert here]: Let’s step back from canonizing Lean long enough to remember what it is: business model design, customer development and agile development. Blank’s work here is significant in that he articulates a fantastic software development methodology within the entrepreneur’s context. But this does not eliminate the pro forma; it informs it. The spreadsheet didn’t go anywhere. It grew up.

        In re-reading this response, I almost deleted the “disservice” phrase. It’s my intention to bring light, not heat but I gotta tell ya; this piece is a headache for those of us who write and use business plans.

        We have to stop what we’re doing, yet again, and explain to partners, associates, investors (and our relatives) that Brad Feld didn’t say “Business Plans are an Historical Artifact.” He said “don’t write a business plan with the methodologies prevalent in the ’70’s.”

        Let me close with the following.

        Anyone who’s been around the startup market long enough can see where we are in its business cycle. It’s getting frothier. And right on schedule, those who should remember, are forgetting the lessons from the roaring ’90’s.

        The lesson I want to recall right now, for readers who’ve come this far is: there are no shortcuts.

        • There are never shortcuts. Never ever ever. But there are a lot of longcuts. And a lot of things that are done that are completely irrelevant and obsolete. A 100 page written document called “a business plan” that follows the format that was introduced by Jeff Timmons in the 1970’s is one of them. And I thought I did a pretty good job of defining what I meant early on.

          The headline was mine, not WSJ’s. I have been saying “business plans are obsolete” for a while. And I deeply believe that. But I didn’t say, nor did I mean, “planning”, or “figuring out what you are doing”, or “running experiments and measuring”, or understanding what you customer wants …
          Also, I don’t read plans, but I also don’t have someone else validate them. I invest in many companies BEFORE there is a validation point. Historically, someone would write a business plan explaining why all of this was going to be happiness and goodness. I’d rather skip that step, invest earlier, and then work with the entrepreneurs to actually validate what is going on using agile / lean / customer development / whatever you want to call it, which for me is really the process of creating a business!

  • Bryan

    Elitist douchery. Business plans are more than just some document for some go public, lean launch, buzz word filled bullshit. It helps tiny, small businesses get clarity and small loans, small investments from friends and family, immigration visas to start non exit-able, unscalable, micro businesses… That employ roughly 70% of America. To discourage these people from planning or starting a business is the ultimate in condescending.

    • Bryan – I wish you left your email so we could actually have a conversation about this rather than you simply assert that this is elitist douchery. Oh well.

    • The article has nothing to do with discouraging to start or plan a business. Are you sure you’re not reading Dan Lyons article and commenting here accidently:) Plus, no one is suggesting that SMBs get their money without a plan. Just without a needlessly long business plan – that’s the point being made here.

  • Totally agree with the concept of moving off the old model.

    But what you still need is a “plan” for How to get there. So, I would say you need a PLAN, not a business plan necessarily. That plan could be a series of detailed bullets or a couple of pages on HOW you will get there- all subject to change as iterative feedback tells you.

    • Agree. That’s at the core of Lean LaunchPad.

  • Shouldn’t we say this for only software startups? It’s much easier for software startups to embrace this kind of process (Lean) but some other industries can’t really do stuff like that.

    BioTech, CleanTech, Food etc. I’m just wondering should we limit these advices on only software industry? Please correct me on this, I’ve never been part of a startup out side of IT industry.

    • I think this applies far and wide – not just to software. Lean actually came from manufacturing industries!

    • We are a cloud hosting provider so we are a mix of software and hardware/infrastructure.

      We ended up following the lean startup process after about 6 months of development and it was the best decision we ever made. In fact we made it too late. We ended up with too many features that weren’t critical to our 1.0 that we’ve had to support since our launch. We found out that our product/market fit was great having half the features we launched with and now that we are hitting growth those features are causing some pain points.

      Had we started down the lean road earlier we could have pushed out those features when customers requested them, making us very responsive to their needs, integrating them after we’ve already had traction which would have allowed us to spec and write those features with our growth numbers in mind, and had another marketing blast since we could announce them as new features.

      I think with a non-software company it’s actually doubly important to follow a lean process because with software it’s easy to “rip” something out, “rewrite it” but when that is also interfacing with a bunch of hardware underneath the specifications and work is much harder to implement. Not to mention development time is longer.

      So it’s really important to follow that process so that time isn’t wasted in developing something that may not fit with customer needs.

    • Lean is subjective to each industry based on what “fat” means in that industry. If BioTech takes two years to bring products to the fore, then 6 months is quite lean, which actually is quite “Fat” for the software industry. And Lean came from Toyota trying to compete with the Fords and GMs of the world after WWII. The concept has universal applications. I’d go as far to say that it applies to every aspect of your life as well.

  • Dave Crenshaw

    interesting. Thanks for sharing! I believe business plans are still
    necessary, but not in the traditional sense. If you can’t fit it all
    into one page (with normal font) then it’s not
    highly reviewable or useful.

  • The other problem with business plans is to pretend that anyone can forecast 3-5 years into the future. You still need to have a PLAN of where you intend to go but the path might be different than what you imagined. A smart business plan would be one that makes you think about the product, user experience competition, distribution methods and monetization. A bad business plan is one that becomes an exercise in trying to sound too professional!

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  • My company has a business plan. I often rest my coffee on it. Our information memorandum however, that document is used often. Business plans are dead because even if you write one, chances are people won’t bother to read it…. it’s too much work.

  • I totally agree that the business plan is an old artifact. That’s why I love what Nevada and Las Vegas are doing with their business competition using the Business Model Canvas:

  • Pingback: Business Plan or Not? – Definately a Plan « D2 Ventures()

  • Elizabeth Conley

    What has always been important is the depth of thinking behind the strategy not the structure of the business plan. For new entrepreneurs with little business experience writing a business plan is still an essential stage and can highlight weaknesses in the business idea before time and investment is wasted. I’ve written a couple of articles on writing business plans for small start-up businesses

  • We have replaced many of the “elements” of the business plan with infographics to try and “show” folks what our market looks like or what it looks like inside the mind of one of our users (as well as most other traditional business plan components). I am curious what your thoughts are on infographic based business plans, as well as how often you are seeing these.

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