Josh Baer at a Return Path event, arms thrown wide and grinning, wearing a Return Path t-shirt

RIP Josh Baer

Josh Baer, the founder and CEO of Capital Factory and the godfather of Austin's startup scene, died last night in a plane crash. He was my friend and I'm sad today.

June 17, 2026 · 4 min
A Rule of 40 heatmap by quarter from Q3 2023 to Q4 2025 for Formlabs, 3D Systems, and Stratasys. Formlabs climbs from negative scores into the green 25 to 49 percent range, while 3D Systems stays deeply negative and Stratasys hovers near zero.

Does the Rule of 40 Work for Hardware?

I've written about the Rule of 40 since 2015, and it's now gospel in SaaS. Does it mean anything for a company that makes physical things? Yes - but you have to read the curve, not the snapshot.

June 15, 2026 · 5 min

Writing a Novel with Phin Argofy

I’ve written or co-written nine non-fiction books. I have no clue if I can write a novel. Non-fiction is “I know a thing, I researched a thing, and here’s the thing.” You don’t have to make anyone care about people who don’t exist. The characters are real and the lessons are the point. Fiction is something totally different. Nobody owes your made-up CTO their attention. As a novelist, you have to earn it on every page.

June 13, 2026 · 5 min

Phil Weiser For Colorado Governor

I’m good friends with Phil Weiser and Michael Bennet. I think the world of both of them. So let me start with the easy part. Colorado is going to be in good hands regardless of who wins the Democratic primary on June 30th. Whoever wins is highly likely to be our next governor, and they’ll be a smart, decent, and hardworking person in the job. I’ve spent real time with both Phil and Michael over many years. I’d be glad to have either one as governor of Colorado.

June 8, 2026 · 3 min

The Premise: The Lead User and the Machines That Build Machines

Eric von Hippel was my doctoral advisor at MIT. I didn’t finish the Ph.D. - I dropped out - but Eric stuck with me through all of it, more as a mentor than an academic. Around 1978, Eric said something that was radical at the time. “Innovation comes from users, not manufacturers.” Today that sounds obvious. You read it and think “yeah, uh huh.” In 1978 it was heresy. The entire model of how products got made assumed the manufacturer was the source of the idea and the user was the recipient. Eric spent the next 48 years building the academic foundation underneath the opposite claim, along with a worldwide research community to go with it.

May 29, 2026 · 5 min
A golden retriever resting on the grass outdoors in the summer sun

It's Summertime

A summer weekend in Aspen - close friends, a gloriously bad movie, running again, and Phin Argofy quietly going autonomous in the work cave.

May 25, 2026 · 1 min
How to Rule the World by Theo Baker

How to Rule the World

I read Theo Baker's How to Rule the World in the last 24 hours. It works on a lot of levels at once - memoir, investigation, a study in how power dismisses inconvenient reporting, and a master class in what not to do at the board level.

May 21, 2026 · 3 min

The Cognitive Sport of Building Startups

Founding a startup is a cognitive sport. Most founders treat themselves worse than their company treats its infrastructure. Just build things as fast as possible. Don’t worry about what’s going to break until it falls apart. There’s no time. The phrase “tech debt” is a cliché because it is everywhere. “Founder physiological debt” is the same. I’ve been watching the gap between founders and the help they need for over thirty years. The data underneath it is grim. Founders are 50% more likely to report a mental health condition than the rest of the population. 72% say the job has affected their mental health. Only 23% see anyone about it.

May 14, 2026 · 3 min
Burn Bright, Not Out book cover

Burn Bright, Not Out

For the month of May, I'm matching donations to the Kabila Founder Mental Health Fund. Plus a free chapter from a new book on founder mental health in tech startups.

May 1, 2026 · 2 min